Pathways descriptions
The combination of lever positions under this scenario reproduces, as far as possible, the main sectoral assumptions and key outputs of the LTS Baseline by 2050 published by the European Commission (European Commission 2018).
European Commission 2018a European long-term strategic vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy. (Brussels: European Commission) Online:
https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/docs/pages/com_2018_733_analysis_in_support_en_0.pdf
Under this scenario the ambition levels of key behaviours by 2050 are raised from those of the LTS Baseline to the maximum abatement level assumed in the EUCalc. The ambition levels for levers related to Technology and fuels correspond to those of the LTS Baseline.
Renewable energy balanced to meet specific demand and power oversupply caped at < 50% of the annual storage capacity. Resources and land-use levers are set towards achieving the maximum feasible agroecology standards in crop and livestock production as well as the sustainable management of forests. Settings of boundary conditions such as demographics or domestic supply dimensions are kept at the LTS Baseline levels.
Under this scenario the ambition levels of technology and fuels by 2050 are raised from those of the LTS Baseline to the maximum abatement level assumed in the EUCalc. The ambition levels for levers related to key behaviours correspond to those of the LTS Baseline.
Renewable energy balanced to meet specific demand and power oversupply caped at < 50% of the annual storage capacity. Resources and land-use levers are set so that crop and livestock production systems achieve all the potential for intensification. Settings of boundary conditions such as demographics or domestic supply dimensions are kept at the LTS Baseline levels.
Under this scenario the ambition levels of key behaviours, technology and fuel, and resources and land-use levers are are raised from those of the LTS Baseline to the maximum abatement level assumed in the EUCalc.
Renewable energy balanced to meet specific demand and power oversupply caped at < 50% of the annual storage capacity. Settings of boundary conditions such as demographics or domestic supply dimensions are kept at the LTS Baseline levels.
The combination of lever positions under this scenario reproduces, as far as possible, the main sectoral assumptions and outputs of the EU-Reference scenario as detailed in Capros et al 2016.
Capros P, De Vita A, Tasios N, Siskos P, Kannavou M, Petropoulos A, Evangelopoulou S, Zampara M, et al. (2016).
This scenario portraits the maximum ambition level in the EUCalculator regarding Key behaviours, which lead to a more substantial lifestyle change than that considered in the 1.5LIFE scenario. In this scenario Technology and fuels, and Land and food default to those of the EU-Reference scenario.
This scenario portraits the maximum ambition level in the EUCalculator for Technology and fuels while Key behaviours and Land and food evolve as those in the EU-Reference scenario.
Reflecting the ongoing debate that brougth about the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land approved on August 2019, this scenario represents an Europe where Land and Food become climate-smart (which might not always result in lower GHG emissions). In this scenario Key behaviours and Technology and fuels evolve as in the EU-Reference scenario.
This scenario is and extention of the "Max ambition in LAND-FOOD" by further pushing maximum ambition in Technology and fuels. In this scenario Key behaviour evolves as in the EU-Reference scenario.
This scenario portraits an Europe where maximum efforts Key behaviour snd Land and food are undertaken and where efforts in Technology and fuels evolve as in the EU-Reference scenario.
This scenario portraits an Europe where maximum efforts Key behaviour and Technology and fuels are undertaken and where efforts in Land and food evolve as in the EU-Reference scenario.
This scenario portraits an Europe were maximum ambition in decarbonizing the Transport sector is undertaken.
The effort takes palce not only on the side of Key behaviours, namely on cahnges in travel distance, mode and occupancy rates, but also on the side of Technology and fuels, with a shift to higher efficiencies and changes in the fuel mix.
Accordingly, maximum ambition in the power sector in order to accomodate the expected demand in electricity is also undertaken. The remaining levers are set to the EU-Reference scenario.
This scenario portraits an Europe were maximum ambition in decarbonizing the Buildings sector is undertaken.
The effort takes palce not only on the side of Key behaviours, namely on changes in living space per person, but also on the side of Technology and fuels, with a shift pahse out of fossil fuel use in buildigs and agressive renovation rates toward higher energy efficiency The remaining levers are set to the EU-Reference scenario.
This scenario portraits an Europe in which both behavioural change and technologies and fuels largely evolve following past observed trends.
Travel demand continues to rise and so does the amount of living residential are per person. Diets change very little apart from the slow decline in Bovine meat and a moderate shift towards eating more vegetables. The number of appliances per household increases and so does the demand for packaging. On the technology side, although cars become 20% more fuel efficient by 2050, sales of vehicles with internal combustion engines make up 98% of new car sales. The renovation rate of buildings tops at 1% a year and the depth of renovation is shallow. In Industry energy efficient gain top at 5% in 2050.
This scenario portraits an Europe in which behavioural changes prioritize the adoption of sustainable practices but without reaching the full level of possible ambition.
Individual travel demand slows down but does not decline, the adoption of less-carbon intensive diets is left half the way to that entailed in WHO health recomendations, the amount of residential living space per person remains constant. On the technology and fuels largely side, there is considerable progress towards the deployment of electrification of transport, new energy standards in buildings, improved industrial processes and strong deplyment of renewables.
On the side of land and food the level of intensification of both crop and livestock production remains limited. The use of alternative protein sources for lifestock like insects and microalge reaches up to 10% of required ration. At the same time, any free land is converted mostly to prairies.
This scenario portraits an Europe in which an unparalleled historical change takes place both on the side of behavioural changes prioritizing the adoption of sustainable lifestyle, and the deployment of highly costly transformational technologies and fuels.
Individual travel demand is contained and slightly decreased taking advantage of tele-working/study and remote access to services. Diets European-wide converge to a flexitarian diet with low animal calorie input and food waste is reduced by 50%. Smaller living spaces are favoured and environmental-conscious attitudes rule purchasing decisions for appliances and packaging.
On the technology and fuels there is unconstrained progress towards electrification of road transport and the shift to biofuels in aviation. The renovation of buildings towards improved energy standards results in 66% energy saving by 2050. The efficiency of industry process and the stitch to new materials makes use of the full technical potential available.
There is a strong deployment of renewable and a shift coal phase out. On land and food the level of intensification of both crop and livestock production remains limited but the use of bioenergy capacity is fully explored. In addition potential of alternative sources for livestock like insects is fully developed.